https://aryasomu.com/writing/ Notes and essays by Arya Somu, published on aryasomu.com. en-us https://aryasomu.com/writing/nemotron-average-banker.html https://aryasomu.com/writing/nemotron-average-banker.html Thu, 15 Oct 2026 23:55:00 GMT A one-epoch adapter doubled Nemotron's accuracy on a narrow banking-support intent test, with a synthetic false start and limits on what that score means. https://aryasomu.com/writing/what-should-an-ai-ask.html https://aryasomu.com/writing/what-should-an-ai-ask.html Wed, 14 Oct 2026 21:46:00 GMT A conversational account of exact causal experiment choice, locked model tests, and what changed when an agent received an exact-risk calculator. https://aryasomu.com/writing/the-typical-path-of-a-favorable-bet.html https://aryasomu.com/writing/the-typical-path-of-a-favorable-bet.html Sun, 11 Oct 2026 23:59:27 GMT A fixed-seed experiment shows how a favorable repeated bet can raise expected wealth while leaving the median bankroll poorer. Filed under September 18, 2026; first published October 11, 2026. https://aryasomu.com/writing/the-epistemic-century.html https://aryasomu.com/writing/the-epistemic-century.html Sun, 11 Oct 2026 23:50:46 GMT How AI could change the institutions that generate, test, fund, and act on claims. Originally published on Substack July 9, 2026; added to this site October 11, 2026. https://aryasomu.com/writing/when-95-percent-credible-intervals-cover-81-percent.html https://aryasomu.com/writing/when-95-percent-credible-intervals-cover-81-percent.html Sun, 11 Oct 2026 23:22:39 GMT A derivation and reproducible simulation of posterior coverage under model misspecification.